Incoming Trump admin, Congress showdown looms with South Africa over support for Russia, US foes

U.S. Threatens South Africa’s AGOA Status Over Russia, China, and Israel Policies

President-elect Trump. (Peter Kramer/NBC via Getty Images)

JOHANNESBURG – South Africa’s lucrative trade benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) could face significant jeopardy under the incoming Trump administration. Tensions are mounting as key Republicans criticize South Africa’s foreign policy alignment with Russia, China, Iran, and its actions against Israel, sparking concerns over U.S. national security interests.

South Africa’s AGOA Eligibility in Peril

South Africa’s duty-free exports to the U.S., including cars and citrus products, are pivotal to its economy, supporting tens of thousands of jobs. However, its participation in AGOA hinges on adherence to U.S. foreign policy priorities. According to a 2023 report from the Center for African Studies at Howard University, nations benefiting from AGOA "cannot act in a manner that undermines U.S. national security or foreign policy interests."

South Africa’s close ties with Russia have fueled this debate. The country has hosted Russian military exercises, granted access to its naval bases, and trained senior officials in Moscow. Moreover, it has abstained from condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the U.N.

Controversy Over Relations with Israel and Hamas

South Africa’s stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict has drawn sharp rebuke from U.S. leaders. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) has engaged with Hamas, with some ANC members openly supporting the group. South Africa has also accused Israel of genocide at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and criticized the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, describing it as a violation of international law.

This has led to widespread condemnation from influential Republican senators like Jim Risch and Tim Scott. Senator Risch highlighted South Africa’s "cozy ties" with Russia, China, and Iran, emphasizing their impact on U.S. security and AGOA eligibility.

From left: South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin appear during the BRICS summit in Kazan on Oct. 23. (Alexander Zemlianichenko/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

Economic Risks of AGOA Expulsion

The potential expulsion of South Africa from AGOA could devastate industries reliant on U.S. trade. South Africa is the U.S.’s largest supplier of oranges during off-seasons and exports vehicles like BMWs at competitive prices. The automotive and agricultural sectors are particularly vulnerable, with experts warning of factory closures and job losses.

Renai Moothilal, CEO of the National Association of Automotive Component & Allied Manufacturers, described AGOA’s loss as "disastrous," predicting that U.S.-based multinationals could withdraw their operations from South Africa.

Republican Leaders Push for Tough Measures

The Trump administration and its Republican allies have made their stance clear. Senator Tim Scott, a key player in trade and foreign relations, expressed his commitment to ensuring AGOA participants align with U.S. security interests. Additionally, former National Security Council member Richard Goldberg suggested declassifying intelligence on South Africa’s links with Iran to pressure Pretoria into choosing between U.S. interests and its current alliances.

South Africa’s Diplomatic Response

South Africa’s government, while silent on recent criticisms, has engaged extensively with U.S. stakeholders to preserve AGOA benefits. COSATU’s Parliamentary Coordinator, Matthew Parks, expressed optimism about ongoing relations, emphasizing the mutual benefits of trade.

South African Ambassador Ebrahim Rassool advocated for a pragmatic approach to international disputes, including its case against Israel at the ICJ, while highlighting South Africa’s crucial exports to the U.S., such as medical isotopes for cancer treatment.

Looking Ahead

With President-elect Trump’s focus on transactional foreign policy, analysts predict a shift in U.S.-South Africa relations. The Democratic Alliance (DA), South Africa’s main opposition party, expects a more reciprocal trade framework under Trump’s leadership.

While uncertainty looms, there is potential for Africa to leverage regional trade initiatives to strengthen ties with the U.S. However, South Africa’s alignment with Russia, China, and Iran remains a sticking point that could shape its economic future under AGOA.